October 5th, 2020

When we look at the totality of the transmission/spreading data for the past 6 plus months, we have seen many inconsistencies, for example, Sweden. Why have they done so well? Why are certain parts of a country affected while others are not. We have discussed these realities in theory for months now as we narrowed down the likely reasons as to why we are seeing what we are seeing. Now, we have a very well written and thought through article on spread. They do a great job of breaking down the science of spread.

What the newest studies are concluding is that 10+% of the infected individuals account for 80+% of all spread. These 10% super spread the vast majority of the remaining COVID19 disease. There is something, yet unknown, but unique about individuals that spread the disease far and wide. Finding these people could be critical to slowing the spread of this virus.

What is the common theme of super spread? Closed/indoor/poorly ventilated spaces with a super spreader for a defined period of time greater than 15 minutes without any PPE. Super spreaders are generally older than pubertal age and have an ability to spread large volumes of viral filled aerosol droplets via loud speech, singing or close contact.

This leaves us all knowing, as of today, the realities of risk.

1) Poor self care causing immune suppression through poor chronic and/or acute lifestyle choices: sleep deprivation, poorly nourished with SAD food, mentally stressed, sedentary behavior, micronutrient deficiency (vitamin D, zinc), toxin exposure (smoke/vape/drug/alcohol abuse) or anything that chronically taxes the human physiology

2) Unknown immune related genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms that predispose someone to poor immune surveillance or viral killing. These are exceedingly rare

3) Crowded and impoverished living environments

4) Choosing to spend time indoors in a poorly ventilated closed off space with multiple people

5) Occupation - health care workers, assembly line workers, hospitality employees and many others that put themselves within the reach of many people at unique and frequent intervals

 

Tufekci Atlantic
Cevik Spread